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SW OH | Pat, I've read a lot of your posts about all this and you seem to think the shut downs and social distancing are way over reacting, correct? If so, I don't think you understand the numbers. This virus spreads exponentially. If this country was operating business as usual, millions would be infected by now. The death rate has been up to 3.x%, with up to 40% needing hospital care which seems high, maybe only 10% needing serious medical care. I've seen so many numbers I can't remember which is which. It also seems the ones dying also have some other respiratory issue before hand. Most people will get through this and live, but.
Only if they can get the medical care they need. That 3.x% death rate is assuming full access to hospital beds, ventilators, and trained medical staff. With 330 million people and only 33,000 ventilators available, that's not enough. That's only enough for .0001% of the people. If that 40% number is true, what are the other 39.999% going to do? Pretty good chance they will die. That could put the total dead numbers up around 132,000,000. How many of those would be your family, friends, and neighbors? That would also be a significant loss of workforce. What would that do to our economy? That is with everyone in the country infected at the same time which will never happen. 50% could be, even at 25% infection rate deaths would be high. Way more than the common yearly flu. Add to that medical staff that are caring for the people currently are getting the virus as well. I'm pretty sure that hooking someone to a ventilator is more complicated than strapping a mask on someone's face and flipping a switch to turn it on and at some point there won't be enough staff left to operate them. It all boils down to slowing the exponential spread and a health care system that can't handle potential large numbers. I realize some of my numbers may be off, based on other countries numbers, but my numbers still illustrates my point.
Mitchco | |
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The only stat that matters: deaths per million people
