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The only stat that matters: deaths per million people
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Supa Dexta
Posted 3/27/2020 05:54 (#8142245 - in reply to #8141862)
Subject: RE: The only stat that matters: deaths per million people



NS Canada
I read this post on another board about just this thing:

'That's not really a good metric either though. Because the outbreaks are typically more concentrated in certain regions. Using deaths in Wuhan per million people in Wuhan would give you a vastly higher number.

Italy is the same as well, over half are concentrated in Lombardy. And the US is centered in New York currently. The death per capita of those regions is significantly higher than the national numbers

For example Lombardy has 4,816 deaths with 10 million people. Which is 481 deaths per million, four times higher than your number.

New York State has 466 deaths per 19.1 million people. Which is 24 deaths per million. 12x higher than the national number. And New York is going to start rising very quickly in the next few days as their medical system is barely holding together'


-- The big problems arise when you fill your hospital. After that the deaths begin to pile up because there just isn't enough supplies/ support/ staff. It's the same as a traffic accident on a high way, 2 cars may have started it, but everyone else is just going to keep piling into them. I'm not impressed with Canada's numbers this week - Travelers returning home should have been put in quarantine locations, because they obvs can't follow the rules and stay home. One woman was arrested 2 days in a row in NFLD for breaking quarantine.

I'm afraid the US numbers are far more grim, next week is going to be a mess.
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