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N FLA | What will the open heifers be worth in the fall? My gut says they won't be worth $850. What doe yours say?
It's alot like corn yield to me. The zeros in drown out spots really kill your average.
I don't really like a plan that is as "easy" as , put on grass, throw out a bull, make $600 in 200 days. Something isn't adding up or we would all be that smart. I sold a pretty nice 1000# heifer , 8months bred, 6 months ago for $1200. So my crystal ball is definitely not saying $1400 short bred heifers in the fall.
Look at your sensitivity analysis. What if the heifers are $1000 in the fall. $1100, $1200. Look at 90% bred, 80% bred, 70%. Etc.
Look at your breeding cost. You might be raising a yearling bull that the cost approaches zero. If so that's an advantage.
We have seen every segment get squeezed. The breeding segmwnt bred heifers and bull segment will be the last to get pinched. All those guys that talked about losing $500 per head, at some point that will be what happens in the segment you are talking about. Just be ready. Don't want to see you get tripped up when there are other much lower risk opportunities out there. I know this is the side of the business you are most comfortable with though. But I think the risk is very high. If you had a full time job and $20 rent then let it roll. But this is mortgage payment money you are talking about now. | |
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Feeback on best way to cash flow
