Back in late January.. or early February.. I locked in Diesel this summer.. as it would save me about $10,000 in costs over last year..  It was a VERY GOOD move.. as prices took off about.. $.50 higher for most of the summer.. I have just about exhausted it now.. as prices are Finally fallen below my contract price..

I was visiting with my supplier who noted that some had locked in Diesel at MUCH HIGHER levels.. over a year ago on Contracts.. as much as a dollar higher than today's values?

Why were we Conditioned to do this?

Are we going to go back to ASSUMING that Prices will STAY this low...???

$47 Crude.. could go to $30.. another $17 lower..

Or the downturn ends on.. pick a reason.. and we head back to the 2008 highs.. about $100 higher then today..

$17 lower.. OR $100 higher..??

Which has the higher risks of BAD OUTCOME?!?  Missing $17.. or enduring $100 or some fraction of..$80.. $60.. $50... etc..

I just don't see a lot of downside left.. sure it could continue to drift lower.. but are we gonna stay down at these levels long term..??

 "probably not." 

The time to start looking at establishing a position is when the other side says they've got a slam dunk winner...(in this case lower..)  NOW is probably a GOOD TIME to start thinking about 2016 and 2017 needs...  Look at Sat's chart.. ANY BETTER time ( well 2009..) to establish Longs then now..??  Nope not much other than the economic melt down of this Century.. how many times does THAT come along?

All I'm saying is the CRUDE HAS TO GO LOWER.. mantra is getting a little stale.. No... no it doesn't...

fwiw..  "I could be wrong.."