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WalterCronkite
Posted 8/3/2015 00:08 (#4713441 - in reply to #4712508)
Subject: RE: It's like anything..


NW Minnesota
$200 Oil??? I want whatever it is you guys are smoking. We are staring down the barrel of a global commodity super cycle bust. Saudi and OPEC will not cut prodution until the windows on the shale shacks are boarded up. This is about market share and who is in charge of the global oil market. Saudi can produce all day at $5 a barrel and they will. Last time this happened in the 80's Saudi kind of stepped out of the market which led them to a very painful recession and a lot of problems. They have learned the lesson not to do that again. You find me one shale or tar sand play that can produce at or even remotely close to that price, especially with their mind bogglingly high debt loads. IMO the carnage in the oil market will persist for quite some time. $15-$25 wouldn't surprise me a bit. I could obviously be dead wrong as I have been many times in the past, but I'm certainly not a buyer here. I will, however, be interested in shale plays after all the excess and debt laden companies get washed out and the next round of companies swarm in to scoop up the refuge for pennies on the dollar. Now that the infrastructure is in place, the hard and expensive part is over. All the new owners can then come in and basically flip the pumps on and pump away. This, of course, after the supply/demand imbalance works itself out, which I'm afraid may take years. Good luck and Godspeed
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