Preposterous?!?

Really?

So the end of the cycle..  The cycle of the VERY EXPENSIVE Shale Oil Production?  The Cycle of Fund Money..??   The Cycle of reporting?  The Cycle of the perception of US Crude Independence.. even though we import 45.. 50% of our usage..

I understand you are benefiting from the free fall of the looney on the Crude break et all... However, how much longer do you really believe it is going to last?

We are NOT going to go back to Pre Shale Oil production price levels..  Especially with China passing the 7 myn bbl per day import mark.. What were they taking for imports at the Start of the so called "cycle?"  Even with a recession.. or whatever they are going through.. What are they taking today?  (about 15 times more than they were 2 decades ago.. and it's SIGNIFICANT.. propping them up to the leading contender for numero uno World Crude importer..

( http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/78f88222-9aff-11e4-882d-00144feabdc0... )

Now granted they have been upset as the #1 World Crude importer.. ( http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/08/china-crude-imports-idUSL... )

.. by none other than the US.. (I thunk we solved all this import business..?!?)  How can we be Independent AND the World's largest importer...???

Meanwhile KSA announces that they are planning to cut back on production...  ( http://www.thestreet.com/video/13236846/saudi-arabia-to-cut-oil-pro... )

Shale production.. the Miracle source of America's supposedly new found enery independence.. We've added over 2.5 myn bbls per day of Crude mostly from Shale production.. and a LOT of Rosey forecasts are built around it's assumed continuance.. 

Is this prudent?  ( http://shalebubble.org/shale-gas-reality-check/ )

Do they have the decline rates correct?  ( http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Bakken-Decline-Rates-Worrying-... )

There's a LOT of Rosey ASSUMPTIONS in this Crude is a sell even AFTER about a $70 selloff yoy...

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Just color me skeptical..  I get that China is slowing.. I get that Wall Street is enamoured with Iran production.. (btw is that Really going to happen?  Seems to be a little political pushback on that agenda.. ( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/u-s-preparing-to-push-back-against-iran-s-malign-influence- )

Maybe the end of the cycle is all the blue sky smoke being pumped out into the investmentsphere going bye bye...???

I get that things cycle.. just not sure WHICH cycle ending is THE ONE to be concerned about..??