AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds (184) | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

EFT's
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Market TalkMessage format
 
JonSCKs
Posted 8/2/2015 15:32 (#4712545 - in reply to #4712524)
Subject: Need more proof? Here's the rail data documenting the declines..


If you needed more proof?  Here is the rail data documenting the Domestic decline in Crude production..

They say a picture is worth a thousand words...



( http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Shipments-By-Rail-Declinin... )

Weekly oil shipments by rail can be found on the web at Weekly Carload Reports. And a summation of that data with charts can be found at Association of American Railroads Freight Rail Traffic Data.  Crude oil by rail basically started with the shale boom. Prior to that almost all oil was shipped by pipeline. Of course a lot of oil was trucked to the pipelines. TheEIA says in the first seven months of 2014, 8 percent of all U.S crude and refined products was shipped by rail. It looks like that percentage was increased somewhat in the second half of 2014.

Oil by rail, for the entire USA, peaked in August, September and October of 2014 and has declined since.

Actually a commentor to the story has a very nice summary that appears spot on..

from Keith..
...
Petroleum and petroleum products moved by rail are now (July week 1) down 20% from the average for Q4 2014. Compared to December 2014 Bakken production of 1.227 MM bopd, this implies a reduction of 247,000 bopd. Even if 84,000 can be accounted for by new pipeline infrastructure, this still implies that Bakken July week 1 production is down by 163,000 bopd. That is 13.3%.


Given that the rig count reductions for the other main basins are similar to those in the Bakken (65%), Eagle Ford (63%), Permian (57%), and applying a reduction of 13%, and assuming total unconventional oil production of 4,5 MM bopd in December 2014, July unconventional production is down 598,000 bopd.

The EIA issues three different reports on US production and the numbers they give are different in all three. In the only one in which they suggest consistent drops since April (their Drilling productivity reports), the EIA's total reduction in production (including their prediction for August) is 332,000 bopd. Meanwhile this simple calculation suggests a number nearly twice as large. 

...

Taking this a little further, if the reduction in percentage of crude transported by rail does reduce as production goes down, and applying the figures given in this report (52% by rail versus a peak of 70% in December 2014), then the reduction in production for the Bakken implied by the 20% drop in rail transport is 183486 bopd rather than 247000 as commented above. Agreeing that 84000 bopd more is transported by pipeline, the reduction is 99485 bopd.This is a reduction of just over 8%. Assuming total US frac production is 4 MM bopd (rather than 4,5 MM), the implication is an overall reduction of 324000 bopd. The EIA drilling report prediction is that a similarr reduction of 332000 bopd will be reached in August.

That seems more reasonable than the other figures issued by the EIA claiming still-rising US production, in the teeth of a rig count reduction of 60%. 

yup.. the gig is up.. Flip side.. the Railroads ought to be a little more hungry this fall for grain shipments.. Sure don't have Coal to slow them down.. nor Crude..

See this..  
https://www.aar.org/Pages/Freight-Rail-Traffic-Data.aspx#weeklyrailtraffic  )

As far as what Richard said.. "I do regret the decline in domestic petroleum production and worst, the decommissioning of the drilling rigs & fracking units because it decreases our energy security, makes us more beholding to foreign countries.   Worst of all it makes us more vulnerable to the neo-cons and more likely to embark on some misguided military adventure. 

What was President George Washington's parting advice to the country, "Avoid foreign entanglements!"

Well.. yal I followed along with Cheney and Bush.. mistake..??  I regret the lives on both sides that were forever changed.. so I do seek peace.. (guess I'm getting a little more liberal in my old age..)  But I also don't see how you reason with some of these tribes over there.. especially the Black Flaggers..  I'd say the jury is still out on Obama's great Ambivialence approach to Foriegn Policy.. "their problem.. who cares?"  Could be ubber brillant.. or ubber Stupid.. just depends upon how it plays out..

Do I want to see future generations beholden to go fight wars over there in order to protect their right to charge us through the nose for energy?

nope.. I don't see the logic in that.. and I'm a dreaded Neo-Con.. or at least used to be...

Heck send them to North Dakota instead.. or worse Canada..to develop North American energy.. they might get frostbite but at least when was the last time an IED went off in Fargo?

If we can have Peace and Cheap energy.. enjoy it while it lasts.. I just don't see history proving that out... but.. things do cycle.. so..

"we'll see.." 



Edited by JonSCKs 8/2/2015 16:33
Top of the page Bottom of the page


Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)