Global unrest seems likely to be good for grain prices - talk about a perverse incentive.

Less desire to finance risky Ukraine ag, more expensive fertilizer moved the S/D curve towards less fertilizer use and less relative production. 

Tightening of global credit makes shakier economies all around ... including South America and Africa.  Again, moved S/D curve towards less relative production.

Nation-states looking towards national food security pulls commodity demand forward ... like maybe now with China. 

US goods and shipping are unlikely to be challenged on the high seas, while products of militarily weaker countries may not have such assurance.

etc