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PEAK corn
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Don Smith
Posted 2/10/2019 22:21 (#7312403 - in reply to #7311797)
Subject: RE: A don smith



Central Pennsylvania, USA
expected 2019 production = 14.79 billion bushels
production sigma = 0.92 billion bushels
expected 2019 production + sigma = 15.4
expected 2019 production - sigma = 13.6
probability 2019 production greater than 15.45 billion bushels = 0.158 (15.8%)
probability 2019 production less than 13.61 billion bushels = 0.158 (15.8%)

attached chart shows unedited USDA data used in this linear trend projected forecast

edit: revised for clarity



(US corn production 2019 forecast (full).jpeg)



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Attachments US corn production 2019 forecast (full).jpeg (67KB - 2 downloads)
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