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PEAK corn
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Posted 2/11/2019 07:09 (#7312718 - in reply to #7312403)
Subject: RE: Acres & yield?

A production of 14.9 billion with a trendline yield of 174 bpa implies 85.6 million harvested acres or 93.1 M planted acres. To suggest that given the soybean situation we only increase corn acres by 3 million is unreasonable.
Note: In the trendline yield graph below I removed '83, '88 and '12 yields as outliers in order to get a more unbiased estimate of yield. Despite that the trend yield is still 4 or more bushels below that achieved in four of the past five years. Add the 80% probability of the extra 4 bushel and we're easily over 15 billion.

Edited by farmer4321 2/11/2019 07:09

(US corn yld 1980-2018-page-001 (full).jpg)

Attachments US corn yld 1980-2018-page-001 (full).jpg (81KB - 119 downloads)
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