Sat says that we got to move the funds from their big 100 k short position.. The Funds are short 500 myn bushels.. about the same amount as the missing corn in the stocks number... (edit for clarification: as discussed in my thread below this one.. Actual Dec stocks at 10,426 only came in 344 myn below the average trade guess of 10,770.. still a pretty big surprise.)


?


Maybe the funds have it laying in a drawer at the office..???


?


Anywho.. as I said.. well.. NO let's go back to that..

The Funds think it's there.. MAYBE THEY SHOULD PRODUCE IT? 

Golly guys.. I've got the PHYSICAL bushels in MY bin..(not 500 myn mind you but.. ) that YOU NEED.. and I'm thinking of a number... hmmm.. What would I sell that for...???


let me mull that one over... and I'll get back to ya...


Anywho.. again I spent most of last week talking weather outlooks..  NOAA helped sponsor an outlook out at Oakley or somewhere.. and they came back for Part Deux at Garden City last week and I went to listen.


The first speaker was the state climatologist from Oklahoma who grew up out in Buffalo Okla.. and brought pictures of the drought..

"Basically the drought started in Oklahoma around October of 2010.. and has lasted since..  Here's a picture of my favorite fishing pond in 2010.. grew up there..  Here it is in 2011.. mostly dry.. 2012.. with weeds in it.. 2013.. now with small trees growing out in the middle where I used to fish..

Here's a dryland wheat field taking off last year in Cimarron County..

"Basically the difference between the Dust bowl and these pic's are that these are in color.."  (laughter)


Eastern Oklahoma is okay.. even wet.. Western Oklahoma today has an established wheat stand.. and decent top soil moisture from the rains last fall.. that took out the highway up Fort Collin's Colorado area.. etc.. HOWEVER our Sub Soil is nil..."


Then he turned it over to the guru from Boulder (??) Colorado a German born guy whom I also enjoyed listening to  had a little Gottlieb "ja" accent..


"Ja I did my dissertation in El Nino La Nina.. so my stuff is Goot."   (okay I believe ya..)


"Your problem here in the plains is that you are missing the El Nino.. something that we have not seen.. in sufficient force for five years. Ja!."


"Looking at History.. You had a bad 2011 Ja.. which was worse than 80.. worse than 81.. similar to the three years in the 1950's Ja,. and the 5 years in a ROW Ja in the 1930's..  that was a bad one... Ja.. "


"Now currently the El Nino La Nina cycle is NEUTRAL which means.. well it means that we can not forecast one way or the other.. El Nino means different things for different area's Ja.. it means that this area COULD expect to see wetter conditions.. and because the jet stream shifts that other area's COULD see not as wet..  La Nina most likely sees a jet Stream that is further north.. pushing cold and wet moisture through the Dakota's..


In 2011.. you got No rain south of I-70  and yet North.. they had the flooding rains that flooded the Upper Missouri later.. this is typical of La Nina...Ja!" 


(Note Caution:  I'm doing this from memory and he's flying through material faster then the hamster on the wheel in my head can run but.. "probably wrong but close..") 


"Now given the Neutral condition of the El Nino La Nina cycle and the OTHER factors the PDO.. the AMO.. the MJO.. (golly what am I missing? there's a couple other things he threw out there...) 


"It's complicated"   (yal no kidding..)


but we can expect an improvement in the cycle.. "you are over due for improvement Ja! and we can expect.. in fact El Nino could show up in 2 weeks and it could start raining 6 weeks later. Ja!"


hmm.. 2 weeks + 6 weeks.. = March.. in time to save my wheat..??  or at least emerge it by then....???


But unfortunately we are not looking for a BIG improvement.. afterall with a historical average precip in Garden City this week of 0.14" 150% of that is still only 0.21" so the extra 0.07" can get used on a windy day...


The question is going to be WHETHER the EL NINO SHOWS up in time before the SEASONAL AVERAGE PEAK RAINS..   IF the EL Nino does Not show up until August you are Kaput!  JA?!?


(that part I got..)


but again we expect improvement although at this time we can not say when...


so.. there ya go.


that's the outlook...


hmm  500 myn bushels short eh..???

 


Golly I bet the FUNDS are PRAYING that it doesn't flip back to La Nina.. DRY in SW Plains and WET in N Central Cornbelt.. Spring for planting...


that might not be "goot."  ???