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| This season is going to be a real challenge for an objective estimate. Historically, the variables to consider are: Sept-May accumulated moisture, June, July & Aug Precip....Temps for May, June, July & Aug. Max temps above or below the median have distinct yield changes for July for corn & each state has a little bit different yield variable. Precip for corn in July is key...but the yield curve begins to decline when precip is above 6 inches in July....while soybeans "hate" wet feet...the yield impact historically is not as severe on excess moisture in July as it is for corn.....August is still the wild card....
I maintain records on 160 locations & there are definitely some trouble spots...but on balance (from an eyeball view) not as many trouble areas moisture wise (short) as in some prev. years --some challenges in Neb...sw ia, n. Ill and in the eastern areas OH, Ind & trib. states like KY, NC & southern areas. There are some excess temp. areas....However, until I run the math on August 1...I yet have no conclusion overall; except when I take a walk in the morning I feel as though I should carry a machete, be alert for monkeys and wonder if Tarzan may swing by...(tropical feel).
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Crop conditions
