SE ND | Steve - 1/15/2019 03:38
I get a kick out of the charting guys. Always looking back and saying "see this is what should have been done because the chart said so". They're always accurate looking back but they never know where to draw that line going forward. IF the market breaks this way or that way THEN this MIGHT happen. (According to the chart) lol
That is somewhat true. There is nothing but probabilities. IF it rains, or doesn't rain THEN I might get a bumper or disaster for a crop. We live with those probabilities every year as farmers. No different with price. If price does this, then this is most probable. Having spent the early part of my farming career oblivious to charting, I honestly don't want to go back to listening to reports or the news. I'll take the probabilities anyday over that. I do try to post forward looking targets as our tools measure the likely path of price. To be good at something, one needs to master the trade. The hardest part of marketing and charting is to remove our own prejudice. Like most of our teachers said, "you're not listening if you're talking."
Don't let it get to you Fry. Tear it apart. Figure out why it did this or that and learn from it. You'll likely run into it again in a similar context. Heck...the same exact thing has occurred before in beans if you're watching it closely. That should give you a good idea what price has in store.
Edited by NoDakFarmer 1/15/2019 17:41
|
After being bullishly wrong the past 2 years...
