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| I was almost exactly in the same position as you - but in the last corn cycle. Moved back to the farm from Alaska in 79 and took on a lot of debt - especially after my dad died soon after. The banker told me that he should sell me out, as there was no way that I could make it. I "lost" about a decade - never even went fishing (that tells you just how serious it was!). (g) I did manage to prove the banker wrong, but I would not have if I had not taken substantial risks - and be fortunate to have them work out. Why I'm writing is to say that, if indeed you do not "make it" - even after giving it your best shot - try not to take it personally. I can show you a long term chart of corn prices, and if you tell me when someone started farming, I can give you pretty good odds about whether or not that person was successful. If they started (or expanded) *prior to* the big bull moves into 1917-20, 1946-48, 1973-74, or now 2008-12, it would have been hard for them *not to* have been successful. However, if their timing was a bit late, their chances are severely diminished. Timing is (almost) everything - assuming things like working hard, taking prudent risks, keeping spending under control, etc. Remember - the market doesn't care if you are successful, and if your timing is wrong, the odds are heavily stacked against you. Not that you can't beat the odds, but the odds are the odds. So, what I am saying is - take your best shot, but if things do not go as you hope they will, accept it as simply unfortunate timing - and not personal failure. | |
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Talked to a banker.....
