I said he said.. "Have not had the El Nino for 5 years.."


I believe now I am confusing that with "For historical purposes El Niño and La Niña episodes are defined when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons. " it takes a 5 period of -0.5 or +.0.5 to trigger a La Nna or El Nino event... we have not had the El Nino since.. 2010.. Since then we have had 2 La Nina's..


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf


The thing that was BAD with the one in 2011 is it set up the blocking pattern that sent OUR MOISTURE North into the Dakota's.. so they got the flooding.. and since we didn't.. we got snake eye's.. coupled with the other patterns led to the "heat storm" that we got going around 4th of July that summer...  The REALLY BAD part was the timing.. it shut OUR MOISTURE OFF during the SPRING.. the highest probability time for us to get it.. GOLLY we really missed that..


Again REMEMBER that we are talking about probabilities here.. Yes an established La Nina would expect to move the Jet Stream north shutting off moisture into Southern California.. and the US SW... (uh-hum... like we are seeing now...??  "gulp" ALTHOUGH no LA Nina triggered.. yet..) but that does not mean it can not rain...  ???

The Chiefs had a 49 to 51 percent chance of Winning their game against the colts going in.. a 90% chance when they were up by 3 scores.. and 0% when it was over.. so.. things change.. in a changing world.. if that makes any sense.


We NEED EL Nino.. I was wrong about it blowing up in 2 weeks.. we're at least 5 seasons away.. Not going to happen before the Summer growing season in the US... but that doesn't mean the Chiefs can't win.. up 3 scores looking good... I'm only using that analogy to make the point about probabilities.


.. thing is.. and this is what I sensed.. bad pattern in an over all bad pattern and the good pattern is expected.. but not there and won't be for "awhile.."  Kind of more like the Colts.. in the 3rd quarter..  ??? but came through in the end..


"not goot."   though for the Chiefs fans..  given the PDO and AMO.. tailback #1 gone... and the ENSO.. Tailback #2 gone...