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JonSCKs
Posted 7/9/2018 11:09 (#6858865 - in reply to #6858445)
Subject: Trumps Trade Deficit assumptions appears to be flawed.


According to this article.. 

( https://seekingalpha.com/article/4185831-want-blame-someone-u-s-trade-deficit-china-blame-apple )

Apple alone is responsible for 24% of the Chinese Trade Deficit.

According to Apple's (AAPL) 2017 10-K report, revenue for the Americas was $96.6B. Apple does not break down U.S. revenue, so I will take a guess that U.S. revenue was $90B for 2017 (it might be less, but I am only trying to make a point).

In other words, of the $375B trade deficit the U.S. has with China, about $90B of that was generated by Apple alone. To put that in perspective, one company alone is responsible for about 24% of the trade deficit with China. My question is, does this actually count as a trade deficit?

Apple's supply chain is spread throughout the world, mainly in Asia. Even if we assume Apple produced everything in the U.S., the supply chain deficit would still exist.

 

But it gets even funnier. According to IHS Markit Inc. (via Bloomberg), the iPhone X with 64 gigabytes of storage costs $370 to make, and the iPhone 8 (base model) around $255. The average selling price for iPhone X is $999 and $699 for the iPhone 8. So, excluding marketing and R&D costs, Apple makes about $629 from the iPhone X, and $444 from every iPhone 8 sold.

But guess what, this money comes back to the U.S. in Apple's bank account. Apple's money was never overseas, but in foreign bank branches located in the U.S. So in reality, the trade deficit Apple is responsible for with China is a lot less. In fact, probably 50% less.

 

I can probably name at least another 100 U.S. companies that either outsource or have a manufacturing base in China and import goods to the U.S. And if we calculate the profits that come from overseas, minus the cost to make these imported goods to the U.S. (from U.S. companies as I said), the U.S. might actually have a surplus with China, not a deficit. So, if President Trump wants to point fingers, he better start with Apple and then follow up with all the other companies in the S&P 500 Index 

???

The Assumption that we are "exporting our wealth through trade deficits".. is not only Wrong.. but could be completely backwards given the above..  ??

WHY are we Doing this.. shooting ourselves in the foot?

China employes workers who build I phones.. which are shipped over here and marked up over 100%.. in Return we send them Soybeans, Pork and some wheat..

What's WRONG with that?

If anything sounds like the Trump administration needs to talk to Apple..  ??

At the National Commodity Classic in Anaheim Ca this spring.. the Soybean Association Trade people were LIVID over the Prospects of seeing our efforts flushed down the drain on this stupid trade war..

At the time.. my response was.. "oh come on.. how bad could it be?  They will settle it soon anyway.. besides China does need to reform it's practices.."

Now.. I'm not so sure.. ??

I don't believe we in Ag should allow the Wilber Ross's in the Trump administration.. to RISK OUR FUTURE in their negotiations..  Ross basically told us in Ag to SHUT UP!

( https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-agriculture/2017/11/15/ross-faults-ag-for-screaming-and-yelling-223364 )

ROSS FAULTS AG FOR ‘SCREAMING AND YELLING’: Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, one of President Donald Trump’s closest advisers on trade, said Tuesday the U.S. will continue to take a hard line on its proposals ahead of the fifth round of talks, set to start in Mexico City on Friday (with technical level conversations starting today). The U.S. agricultural industry, ever fearful of Trump’s itchy withdrawal finger, probably didn’t want to hear that. But ag groups certainly didn’t want to hear something else Ross said at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council.

Ross said the negotiating environment has only grown more complicated as a result of industries like ag that have voiced a greater level of concern over the direction the administration is taking in the 2.0 talks.

“As one special interest group, say agriculture, for example, gets nervous, they start screaming and yelling publicly,” Ross said during the D.C. event. “They start writing letters, soliciting the Congress people, and [then] they start screaming and yelling in public. It just complicates the environment and, frankly, makes the negotiations harder.” Pro Trade’s Adam Behsudi has more from Ross here.

Another letter headed Ross’ way? Last month, scores of ag groups urged the administration by letter to refrain from notifying Congress of an intention to withdraw from the deal, a potential strategy to pressure Canada and Mexico that Trump has flirted with publicly, much to ag’s consternation. The letter was sent not to Trump but to Ross. It challenged him after he publicly disputed the idea that a NAFTA withdrawal would lead to a serious drop in exports. .. has more on the background surrounding that letter here.

Really?!?

How are we supposed to act when you RISK a $14 Billion Market which has taken Generations to develop?

It would help.. Mr Ross.. if while your playing with our livelihoods.. You set out some parameters of success and defined how your going to protect us.

"Just sit down and shut up"  ain't gonna cut it.



Edited by JonSCKs 7/9/2018 11:22
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