Texas/New Mexico Stateline | Boone & Crockett - 6/29/2018 19:46
Wow. That's quite an optimistic projection. 10-14% compounded annual return over next 20 years? Dow at 200,000 by 2038? The market had best get moving to accomplish that lofty achievement, cuz it's on course to have a loss for 2018. Which would mean to stay on track to meet the projections you laid out, it would need to increase by over 28% next year to make up for this year if it breaks even on the year. Sorry Milo, but those numbers are going to be very, very unrealistic expectations.
I don't know what kind of math you are doing, but rule of 72 says that with only 7.2 returns it will double every 10 years. With reinvesting of dividends it should do better than that. 9% average returns will double in 8 years. Looking at 20 year rolling returns it has had many 20 year runs that were in excess of 10%. 30 year rolling average is nearly 100% above 10% annualized returns.
So maybe I exaggerated and it will only be 2.5X what it is today in 2038. Still better than the pitiful returns of annuities that enrich the salesmen and insurance companies. I'd rather have all the return thank you very much.
But the Dow at 24k today x 3 is not 200,000 points no matter how you figure it. 75k points in 2038?? Highly likely.
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