IN555 - 9/13/2017 12:34

I placed a trade yesterday based on the USDA report so that in itself proves they matter. Actually if I took a wild guess I would bet I probably wasn't the only one that placed a trade based on the report. The market is the sum of all the participants. To say a report, rain event, drought, acres, etc doesn't matter is simply not true. If someone, heck anyone placed a trade based on any of that then it does matter. There is absolutely nothing predetermined about the market. There is no tool to show you where it is going. Your Andrews forks may tell you the probabilities or possibilities of where the market is heading based on the previous reactions to likewise events or data. It is no different than Fibonacci retracements believing the psychology of ones predicted behavior, it may be predictable in what one might do but it doesn't tell you what is going to happen. Same with Elliot waves, they all are based on the same principles of human behavior and how they respond to said events or data. None of them have the ability to predict the data of event. We have to remember on these boards that all the above tools weren't made just for the grain markets, they also apply to oil, copper, equities etc. All of which have different levels of volatility, events and data. Many of which those others aren't based on a supply that must be produced every 6 months. Personally I think the struggle with the forks etc currently is coming off the 2012 peak makes things more fuzzy to see. Price does not need to retrace to certain levels considering the job the market did during those times. The one thing I having been paying a lot of attention to fundamentally is bean DEMAND. The higher lows your charts are showing is the result of demand growing at a pace that supply likely can't keep up with unless we add production(acres). I got bulled up also this summer FRY based on crop ratings and bean demand, but there is nothing with a crystal ball. If yield comes in at 45 or 54 is a dramatic difference. There is nothing that could tell anyone what it would be, and to say the result would be the same is foolish. I do appreciate your work, along with jpartner and others. But I think we all need to agree none of us can predict the future. Using indicators is great, I can show similar projections based on fundamentals. We are due for some fireworks in the future, I just hope we all can take advantage of it.