John Burns - 7/28/2017 17:41

The good news is, the end users are being given every chance to lock in corn at current prices. How can they complain if corn prices go up if they did not lock them when they had the chance.

At least that is the contra-mantra that would be the theory on the sellers end should prices go down from here. Everyone had the chance to book near $4 corn.

The reality is no one knows. If I knew I would not need to farm. Just trade.

I get a kick out of anyone stating something on the order of "anyone is an idiot for not locking in prices here that are profitable", or something to that effect. If you think about that logically, the contrary to that would be that "any end user that is buying at these prices is an idiot". If it is so certain at any point in time that prices are the highest for the year, why would any buyers buy (other than ones that had to grind feed right then) any future needs at the highest price.

The reality is, no one knows. We as sellers know no more than the buyers and if we feel we have a "no brain er" then we have to be assuming the other side of that trade is being taken up by an idiot. That is simple logic.

If we are smarter than the market then logic dictates that the person on the other side of our trade has to be dumber than the market. Every trade has two sides.

But that flies in the face of "if only we could be better marketers we could make lots more money farming".

Does not mean we do not try to do better than average. But we also need to be realistic in our expectations that some of the people on the buyers side may actually be as smart as we are.

Personally I hope we do not have a blow up run up in the market. A nice steady climb through harvest and after would suit me just fine. We get one of those years...............just about the time every market guru, every farm magazine, every dog and his brother are all on the same side of the boat saying we are idiots for not having most of our grain sold before we produce it. They must think the buyers are idiots for buying it. At least logic would dictate so.

John