Most of brazil starts planting much earlier in relation to what we do in the heart of the cornbelt. Considering some harvest has began over the last few weeks I would say that is a good indication of what I am talking about. I would say in general January is probably closer to our August. 

..

 That is true but they ALSO raise 2 crops.. the Safrina crop.. the double crop.. IN ORDER FOR THAT TO GO IN.. They need TIMELY Rains.. then Dry.. Harvest PLANT.. more TIMELY Rains.. etc..

2 years ago they pulled it off.. SEE.. says the bears.. Last Year.. not so much.. SEE says the BULLS.. not so easy is it?

2017...???  remains to be seen..

again repeating from below.. golly 1234 if you had time to pull out the Safrina crop I believe you would discover how VARIABLE it is.. beau coup wonderful OR beau coup disaster.. "it just depends.. on what they get going forward.."

ANOTHER example is the MARCH towards HUGE WONDERFUL SOUTH AMERICAN Yields.. which ALSO occurred this time last year.. when we LATER find out that they Lost 18 mmt's Year on Year..

( https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf )

page 22

Production from Brazil 85 mmt's in Crop Year 2014/15.. "beau coup wonderful"

Production from Brazil 67 mmt's in Crop Year 2015/16 down 18 mmt's yoy.. "beau coup THIS SUCKS!!"

A YEAR AGO the 12/9/15 WASDE had Brazilian Corn Production estimate was..

( http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/wasde//2010s/2015/wasde-12-09-2015.pdf )

Production from Brazil 81.5 mmt's in Crop Year 2015/16 Proj.

That's a 14.5 mmt miss.. or 570 million bushels...

The soybean market sold off today on the expectations of a LARGE South American Crop coming...

???

So how did they do on Soybeans.. 12/9/15 WASDE

Production from Brazil was projected as 100 mmt's

on Last months results.. 

Production from Brazil was 96.5 mmt's.. so better.. but still a 3.5 mmt miss.