I got a running bet on a steak dinner with a merchandising buddy of mine.. He says we break the 155 bu state record.. I say we come in at 145.. so I need 149.9999 or less.. either way it's steak so no big.. but..

From our growth in acreage data below.. Where did the extra acres come from?  Cotton.. 4 myn 'ish Nationally.. That's pretty high yielding ground.. Somewhere around another 4 myn'ish came from Hay/Alfalfa.. 3.8 myn'ish came from wheat.. so that is DEFINITELY NOT going to be 170+ bu potential... as well as 10 myn less CRP acres.. ditto yield potential... then minor crops like Barley.. 1 myn'ish.. Oats.. etc..

My point is that "good to excellant" dryland Kansas corn could still only yield like 120 to 135'ish.. which is what some of the early stuff is making around here.. some 150+

Asked a merchandiser yesterday how it was going... "100 plus.."

A couple counties over.. "Best I've heard is 170.." etc..

I know that a couple counties to my NW are going to be a pocket of 35 to 75 bu potential.. just missed too many rains...

Kansas is something like 3.7 myn harvested corn acres.. only about.. 1.7 is irrigated.. so the majority is dryland.. although a good chunk is NE Kansas.. Brown county.. 185+ potential dryland..   SE Kansas.. John Burns country can be On or Off.. sounds like they are On this year..  Next big chunk is NW Kansas..  They don't get an abundance of moisture.. but they're at altitude so that helps and good soils/good farming practices..   Goodland looked GOOD.. "not so much" not too far away... and that area needs help from Ma Nature to bring the irrigated in.. it's a lot of low gallonage wells..

SW Kansas is mostly irrigated.. and they've had some decent help on rains this year for them.

A buddy started High Moisture Corn.. first circle went like 240.. huh.. gonna take out 155 then..???..  Next 2 went 160'ish..  Again our soils are Drought Baked.. and have not been opened back up to infiltrate moisture like they CAN.. so.. feast or famine..

I asked him if he thought this was a Record year like 09..  "Nope.. NO WAY."  

???

I think there's gonna be some Good yields.. Some Great Yields and some "not so much."

I'm a little nervous on my bet.. but I made it before the August report.. and USDA has Kansas at 145 also.. 

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-08-12-2014.txt

So I'm in good company.. but we'll see.

The LAST Weekly Terminal report is out..  http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswgrstock.pdf

Hutchinson is only 42% full.. and they are bidding on corn.
Wichita is only 32% full
Topeka/Salina is only 16% full
Texas Panhandle is only 15% full..

So PLENTY of room to hold bushels.  150+ myn just in terminal space alone.. 

edit add:  I agree with the poster right above.. Our problem this year is that we only planted 17 on dryland here and fertilized for APH yields.. we should have dropped 24 k and doubled the fertility.. this year that would have converted it.  Lot's of Yellow dryland corn.. had more potential then fertility.. that being said.. there will be some REALLY GOOD Dryland fields.. and most will make over 100.. 80 to 150'ish for here is my guess.. 115.. 125 averages...  

200+ on the irrigated..  149.9999999999999999999999999999999999  for the state average..

I want my steak medium well.. loaded baked potatoe. Devin.   ;-)