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| I still think the concept of livestock is getting less popular. Many folks like you are hoping for an unfortunate fire to burn down the hog operation and use the insurance proceeds to buy combines, etc. Being able supply your own feed needs insulates you from about everything but ultra low hog prices and 'opportunity cost' if you sold the grain. My guess is that the number of hog producers will continue to drop and at some point production might even curtailed.
The main thing though is that grain is a commodity that can come from about anywhere and as such isn't worth much more that the cost of production historically. Also, grain producers have always found a way to produce too much and that behavior is only slowed down by mother nature once in a while. On the other hand, a hog is a value added product and, like I said, not everyone wants to 'add that value'. Long term adding value tends to work out. As Garvo pointed out, if it's your passion you'll find a way. I'd think keeping costs in check as best as possible during these lean times isn't a bad idea. However, low interest rates and decent contracts for your hogs might be worth taking advantage of. It will mean a loan payment hanging over your head and the income stream being pinched during the loan period, but that's part of the deal in building a business.
Of course we'll have hsus and peta trying to put us out of business, but when the public finally gets it that they want no meat to be sold or eaten, I think there will be a significant backlash. You see it a little with folks attempting to raise their own livestock, and, as a result, being less susceptible to videos of pigs with sad background music. | |
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What does the future hold for the land base farrow to finish guy? 5+ years down the road
