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n. Illinois | enjoy reading all of the comments about why the laws of financial physics have been repealed this time around.
The sale of $29,600/ac in NW Iowa just proved everything is great in Ag Economically. (never forget land value is a lagging indicator)
watching the banks/farmcredit hold their nose and renewing another large deal that lost its ass in 2023, buy a bunch of new paint and take on another $500K per year of debt payments more than they had last year and pretend that somehow magically corn is going to average +$5/bu in all of 2024 just to have a positive cash flow coverage of 1.0x. No one willing to have the real conversation as to how realistic that is. current fall prices blows a 1-2 million cash flow hole into it.
So if corn and beans do not rally back up into the mid $5's and beans back over $12 cash flows in 24 will again be very tight/negative for the real operators who operate the vast majority of the ground, yes there are some no debt unicorns out there, but they are the exception not the rule.
Good luck and lets pray China decides they want to overpay for corn and soybeans relative to South America and Urkaine.
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with all the post ranting against the possibility of land values
