I don't have a problem at all with people who only want to use price and charting techniques. That is not some out of the ordinary line of thinking. I personally believe technicals guide the market, determine price, and can carry/push the market to a degree; but fundamentals give a range and help provide direction. Fundamentals are not relevant on a daily basis and really have little to do with day to day action.

But since you issued the challenge, here are soybeans! Left to right:

8/15 - In the August Wasde of 2015, price had made a spring low, summer high, and higher late summer low. An ascending fork was formed and as price was moving towards its median line, a bearish report came out in which projected yield and carryout were raised. Price plummeted from a high of $9.85 to a low of $9.11 and shattered the lower median line of the ascending fork and made a lower low.

5/16 - The summer high of 2015, harvest low of 2015, and spring high of 2016 came together to create the red fork. It was absolutely a valid fork at the time of its creation. On that energetic spring rally, price had struck $10.57'0, but closed the day at $10.28. It would work its way down to $10.08, nearly 50c off of the high, and 30% of the way to the median line. But on the May 10, the USDA came out with a very bullish Wasde. Price took off and thankfully destroyed that miserable looking bearish fork!

6/16 - Well, that is June 10, and that it the high.... You wanted a swing on a report, there you go. It was actually a bullish report of a sort, but as mentioned many times yesterday, bottom on bearish news and top on bullish news. I am aware the descending monthly fork from 2012 was pierced but not broken that day. I am aware of SRLs, horizontal lines, and price counts which could take credit as well.

7/17 -  We were recovering just a little over two months ago. The acreage report didn't show us planting 90 million acres of soybeans like the trade thought and we had put in a spring low and were well on our way to that median line. We were going to break the sell zone, them BAM! The USDA came out with a neutral/slightly bearish report when people were actually looking for a bullish report and the wind left our sails.







That latest fork is not done for yet; which is probably the reason for your post Fry. It will take the fundamentals coming along to allow it to fulfill its objective though. I think they already are and do not believe the USDA soybean yield for a second. But realization might not occur until late spring early summer, when end users start having trouble filling their needs. Technical tools will guide the rally; just as they do the pullbacks. But there is almost always a descending mate for every ascending line and vice versa. If we don't get recognition, this ascending fork might turn out like the last one. 

2015 Low, 2016 High, 2016 Harvest low; it was a very valid fork.