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| One last thing. In hogs we keep getting 'flushes' where the price drops below where guys could make money using methods they thought were right (and they were). Every flush wiped more guys out because they didn't adjust or didn't want to (often future generations had no interest in hogs anyway). There is no safety net in livestock, so bad stuff happens really quick. If a guy was tied to "this is the way we've always done it", he wasn't doing it anymore. There was a lot of that in livestock and will continue to be in grains until prices and/or supports back off enough.
If Clay is right about a line a pickups to farm 165 bpa (is that aph?) ground for $225, the reality of our circumstances has not set in yet.
Btw:
165 bpa x $3.40 = $561 (consider most guys break evens are pretty close to $4 and maybe above)
Seed: $100
Fert: $120 ($60 dry, $60 NH4)
rent: $225
Pesticide: $50
Insurance: $15
I'm up to $510 already and there is fuel, equipment costs, labor, repairs, family living, interest, etc that can eat up the remaining $50 as your own calculations have shown. So it's far from a no brainer just considering basic costs that everyone has (no economies of scale figured). Note that corn could be heading back towards $4 but just as likely $3. $3 makes it much more difficult.
At the least if you rent it, lock in some sales and maybe up to your insured bushels. Remember 85% insurance at 165 bpa at $3.86 is $541 and it's likely more than $15/acre. No free lunch.
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Southern IL rent
