It has been hot, windy and dry.. which is why we've got the crops planted vs last year.. For us it's speeding wheat harvest along.. we got a cool wet good grain fill a few weeks ago and the dryland looks decently good. We cut a little tonight but too immature and just not quite ready yet. However yield reports to our south are decently good.. West.. not so much.
The South West dryness is a concern. The ENSO cycle has been cooling.. but we may dodge La Nina..?? Or not??
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Year | DJF | JFM | FMA | MAM | AMJ | MJJ | JJA | JAS | ASO | SON | OND | NDJ | | 2010 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.6 | | 2011 | -1.4 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.0 | | 2012 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | | 2013 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | | 2014 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | | 2015 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | | 2016 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.6 | | 2017 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.0 | | 2018 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | | 2019 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | Year | DJF | JFM | FMA | MAM | AMJ | MJJ | JJA | JAS | ASO | SON | OND | NDJ | | 2020 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
If we are going into a 2011/12 type of event.. today's values seem more similar to 2010.. which actually was a pretty decent year if I recall.. late fall harvest.. good crop.. storage issues.
This may be the year to fill bins and wait?
It doesn't appear that we will trigger a La Nina yet.. unless it really dives and the values get changed.. possible.. but not likely that I can recall.
However, this isn't the only driver and it is hot and windy. here. so.. ???
Edited by JonSCKs 6/14/2020 19:55
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We are in a weather market starting today.
