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| So, we know how fast it spreads but, how fast will it decline? The key to fast decline is prolonged quarantine...shelter-in-place must be maintained until cases are at least in the single digits. The risk of lifting shelter-in-place / quarantine too soon will likely cause the number of cases to go back up. If you listen / read what the experts say, and I have no reason not to believe them (no conspiracies about COVID-19, it’s a force of Nature), my personal goal is at least Memorial Day. A vaccine(s) is at least a year away for mass production, which could cause a rebound in the fall, which I fear. The reason cases in Asian countries “appear” to be slowing is they are able to “force” quarantine. We aren’t a society and government that can implement partial martial law. Therefore, the US society needs to be proactive and remain self-quarantined until Summer. The economy should be the least of our worries right now. Health comes first. | |
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Explaining exponential growth
