NWPA | indeeppigfarmer - 4/5/2020 17:30
One needs to understand exponential growth, but disease spread does not work in a strict pattern like the thimble of water doubling example. Some people take a larger amount of exposure to be infected, some will be more or less contagious than others, and a host of other scientific factors that do not run in a straight line.
If your said cruiseliner had a population resembling the age and health of the american populace, and protocol was put in place to encourage the spread of the disease, one could predict using what the medical community believes to be at this time, that about 70 of the passengers would need hospitalization, 6 or 7 may die, and the other 3600ish would range in symptoms anywhere from no/little issues to feeling like crap for a few days to few weeks.
That can't be right. Ppl says it's between 1 and 4 percent are gunna be gone. That's 36 to 144 that are goners. |
Explaining exponential growth
