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Explaining exponential growth
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Deaner
Posted 4/6/2020 23:21 (#8170739 - in reply to #8167687)
Subject: RE: Explaining exponential growth


Northern Ohio
tooth and nail - 4/5/2020 19:41

indeeppigfarmer - 4/5/2020 16:30

One needs to understand exponential growth, but disease spread does not work in a strict pattern like the thimble of water doubling example. Some people take a larger amount of exposure to be infected, some will be more or less contagious than others, and a host of other scientific factors that do not run in a straight line.

If your said cruiseliner had a population resembling the age and health of the american populace, and protocol was put in place to encourage the spread of the disease, one could predict using what the medical community believes to be at this time, that about 70 of the passengers would need hospitalization, 6 or 7 may die, and the other 3600ish would range in symptoms anywhere from no/little issues to feeling like crap for a few days to few weeks.


Protocol to ENCOURAGE ? ? 
I think just being on a cruise ship encourages the spread of disease



Not necessarily. My wife got the Nora-virus on a cruise ship once. She is like a germophobe now. Hand sanitizer, washing hands, never ever touch a hand rail or door knob. Maybe others are like that, more careful on a cruise ship.
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