Corn Ethanol can't compete with 57 cent per gallon gasoline unless corn is approaching $1 per bushel.
Even though the Gasoline side.. which is the MAJOR price component is about a DOLLAR CHEAPER NOW vs Last Fall?!?
Reviewing my post above.. Last fall we had $1.78 BOB.. Today it's like $0.55.. I'm using $0.65 below. Taking Ethanol back up to $1.23 at the 15% level.. under those conditions only runs.. around $0.74 before Taxes.. of.. ?? $0.60 = $1.34.. things haven't worked through the system yet.. $1.23 ethanol and a plant cranking out DDGs can break even in the low 3's.. $3.45'ish. Tight but not the end of the world.. when the economy comes back on.. Gasoline is gonna go back up. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | blend | blended | | blended | blended | | RINs | | Plant Value | | Sep-19 | | Price | Octane | ratio | Octane | btu's | price | btu's | | | | Ethanol | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ethanol | 1.33 | 114 | 0.1 | 11.4 | 77300 | 0.133 | 7730 | | 0.05 | | 1.38 | | | Bob | 1.78 | 83 | 0.9 | 74.7 | 114000 | 1.602 | 102600 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 86.1 | | 1.735 | 110330 | | | | 8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Mar-20 | | | | blend | blended | | blended | blended | | RINs | | Plant Value | | | | Price | Octane | ratio | Octane | btu's | price | btu's | | | | Ethanol | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ethanol | 1.23 | 114 | 0.15 | 17.1 | 77300 | 0.1845 | 11595 | | 0.35 | 0.053 | 1.283 | | | Bob | 0.65 | 83 | 0.85 | 70.55 | 114000 | 0.5525 | 96900 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 87.65 | | 0.737 | 108495 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 86.1 | 10% | 0.682 | 110330 | | | |
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A Way forward. Ethanol treated like Strategic Energy that it is.
