Posted 2/11/2019 12:53 (#7313690 - in reply to #7313569) Subject: RE: Here's a trend line for ya...
CentralNEFarmer - 2/11/2019 11:18
The greatest risk in the near term isn't demand destruction like ethanol being replaced it is growing a monster crop of the likes of 2004. Going from memory here it was something like 13+% over the march estimate (could be wrong). Take a rough guess at a 176 trend and you will have something in the order of a 199 bu corn crop. Say we plant 94 million acres and harvest 86 that gives us a crop of over 17.2 billion on demand of 14.5 billion. Carry out grows over 4 billion. It would plunge past your 2.30 low.
Not that I believe that possibility is great but overproduction is agriculture's greatest threat vs. demand destruction.
We are not going to grow a 13% over crop. It is becoming statistically impossible. Yield averages will be more consistent and greater upper averages will be impossible to attain. The last 3 years are a great indication of this. We could have a widespread drought and bring it down like 2012 but we are at the top of the bell curve of yield. Slightly higher highs with big drops is we have an 88/12.