Posted 2/11/2019 14:56 (#7313961 - in reply to #7313813) Subject: RE: Here's a trend line for ya...
So JP, since you jumped in, and in the context of what you said, are those action reaction lines that I drew worthless in those situations?
It seems like they would have been useful in 2008 to 2012 to help convince a guy that selling would not be the end of the world but maybe it's pretty coincidental that it worked out that way?
In this instance they are on such a massive scale that doing anything from a timing perspective would be impossible at least for me. I guess it just makes me think, "heck, why can't that happen again"?
I am sure at some point the bias I have developed from my experience with wheat is going to hurt me. I am pre-disposed to believe that the worst thing that can happen, will happen. Maybe not today or this year or even in the next 5 years but I'm gonna struggle not to be a price pessimist until corn price gets lots worse than it has been so far.
When I try to do a "self-assessment" of my current charting, I don't think I mix up action reaction and forks. When I try to find lines of balance with action reaction lines I'm aware that they don't have the predictive abilities of median lines. I usually look for AR lines when median lines seem too steep to be realistic.
My other option that I am aware of would be to use modified Schiff I guess. But modified Schiff has no probabilities associated with it either does it? So why would that be better than trying to find action reaction lines?
Or I could just study market structure. I still REALLY struggle with structure though. I should draw an update of my thoughts on that again sometime so people can pick it apart again but if I go off structure alone, it makes me bullish short term. The 2015 and 2016 sellers at ~$4.40 failed to do anything but barely squeak out lower lows which makes me think they are likely to get taken out. They really didn't do their job or at the least they did it poorly. So there are 2016 buyers at $3.14 or so. They failed to take out the $4.40 sellers, but they are making higher lows which makes me think they're still working on it.
So if I were betting based on structure alone, I guess I'm betting bullishly but maybe I'm reading it wrong because I still don't understand structure very well.