Posted 2/11/2019 15:58 (#7314080 - in reply to #7313690) Subject: RE: Here's a trend line for ya...
Custer County, Nebraska
I believe that if we could directly compare the same 2004 acres through today, year by year, that our trend yield would be accelerating upwards. We've become used to a linear trend line and I *think* that is why we are being surprised by larger than expected national yields. Again I *think* that the additional acres are masking data that would lead us to add a fudge factor to the historical linear trend yield.
So when it comes to a 2004 size crop, the exact same acres of 2004 could very well do that 199 bu/acre nat average, the millions of additional acres since that time frame are a huge question mark of how much... if any large effect they would have on national yield.
So I'm going to agree with you to a certain extent. It is going to be very hard to achieve an excellent national crop because of how widespread the corn belt has become. I don't think perfect weather can exist because it would be a "Peter robbing Paul" situation. Nebraska could have excellent weather but that might suggest the Iowa has to do with less rain. N. Dak might get warm weather but that could bake Kansas.