First off.. every year.. "too much heat.. (Brazil) rain at planting.. (Argentina.. and US 2019??) and drought.. (US late summer..?? as La Nina fades..??)  etc..

BRAZIL WILL NOT touch last year's record Soybean Crop DESPITE more Acres.. too much damage done.. and the heat returns next week.. last I heard.

From the US Stocks REPORT.. Feb 8th.. we'll find out how much WE ACTUALLY GOT out of the field (combines were running here yesterday North of Dodge on a Sorghum field.. cotton pickers also..)  how much of That USDA National Soybean and Corn Yield did we FINALLY GET?!?  We didn't get it ALL..

US Wheat Acreage.. how much got in.. how much gets torn up?

US Soybeans.. how much does acreage fall

US Cotton.. how much more this year?

US Corn.. How much more?

We have an ethanol plant opening up this spring.. 22+ million bushels of NEW DEMAND.. E-15 coming.. last week's blend was around 10%.. a little soft but nothing that a Big China export sale couldn't cure..

etc..

right now the Bears are trying to run out the clock.. the Bulls.. we'll ship MORE SOYBEANS this summer vs Normal.. US Soybean EXPORTS will be flatter.. NOT the ALL or Nothing in the Fall vs the Spring..

WHY is China gonna send ships past the PNW all the way down to Brazil for TWICE the Freight?

...???

So.. No I think the 955 US Carryout on Soybeans comes down.. 150 on Exports.. 25 or 35 on yield.  and maybe bump the grind a smidge..

We exported 2,129 million bushels last year.. we probably will not do that.. but we'll come closer than most think as of today.

2050.. 2100.. maybe..   ???

Even with ASF.. China has to get Beans.. 94 last year.. 90.. 86 mmt's from somewhere.. honestly.. we're the ones who have them.. as Argentina is out.. and harvest doesn't start till May.. and Brazil.. will struggle to ship a smaller crop for lower prices.. 

"we know what that's like.."

China is running on fumes.. they took 18 mmt's or more less this fall in the trade war.. did they pull that from stocks?  From Brazils Oct 1st stocks of 25.. (which Brazil had to have SOMETHING to get to Harvest which is JUST NOW starting..)

WHO FILLED that 18 mmt hole?

.. and now has to cover...???

that card has not been played yet.. but it's coming...

Did China have a Soybean Printing Press..  print beans out of THIN AIR?!?

No..