Lol.. I'm gonna keep beating this drum.

LAST YEAR:  Brazil exported 76.2 mmt's.. they had MORE STOCKs to do it from...as of October 1st they had 25.15 mmt's.. vs 26.81 the previous year.. so 1.66 mmt's  or 61 million bushels less.

US Soybean Sales to China thus far have been down about 18 to 19 mmt's while sales to others are up about 8 mmt's.. thus we dug ourselves a 10 mmt hole.

Brazil's initial production estimates are:  The WASDE has them at 122.. at the start of the season some threw out 125 to 130.  NOW most are down to 118 to 115.. and one last week at 114.

They are going to have a SMALLER crop for 2019 than 2018's 120.3 mmt crop.

China took 94.13 mmt's last year.. out of 153.54 total.. per the LAST WASDE for 2019 they are projected at 90 out of 152.46

EVEN IF.. you take them down to say 86.. in order for Brazil to hold stocks steady at 23'ish mmt's.. leaves them only 72 mmt's to export..  4 mmt's less.. and possibly more depending upon where their crop size stops shrinking..  ???

Per the Last Sales report we are at 29.93 mmt's with 36 weeks left.. vs 51.72 target.. that's 21.79 mmt's to go or 0.605 mmt's per week to go..

This past reported sales week of 12/20/18 we did 2.391 and supposedly we just sold another 5 to china per yesterday's news.. ??

On paper.. I come up with something like 52 to 55 mmt's or an increase vs the last WASDE of 1 to 4 mmt's

It has to come from somewhere.. and we are the place that has soybeans as we are EXPORTING SOYBEANS to ARGENTINA NOW.. and BRAZIL will have a SMALLER CROP!!

US Soybean exports are understated now at 1,900 million bushels.

From KBrann as posted by SoDak Farms below..

We have BOOKED 3.48 to China out of 90.. even IF Brazil sells ALL (which they won't) of their 72 mmt's to China.. that still leaves 18 or 15 mmt's MORE to get.. plus our share of the REST of the World's 62 to 65 mmt's to get. 

US Soybean Sales are understated!!





Early Brazilian Harvest Reports ( http://soybeanandcorn.com/news/Jan31_19-Early-Soy-Yields-out-of-Mat... )

This region is generally very productive with soybean yields as high as 70 bu/ac, but this year, some farmers are reporting losses as high as 50% especially for the early maturing soybeans that were filling pods in December. They did receive some rain over this past weekend, but the hot and dry weather is expected to return later this week.