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US Soybean Exports.
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Deere6
Posted 2/1/2019 08:29 (#7289700 - in reply to #7289378)
Subject: RE: World Ending Stocks debate


I often see the argument on here, which you also made below, that world ending stocks are lower than WASDE says. This is due to the stocks on hand for SA being taken 3-4 months before the end of their marketing year, or the beginning of next harvest. My response was "it doesnt matter" and here is why. (Going to use very rough numbers to show my example) Approx 4bbu "world ending stocks" with 1 bbu in US as of sept 1. Say 1.5 bbu in SA. "But they are going to use %30 of that before their next harvest, so it should be 1bbu". BUT in the mean time "here" we have harvested and put another 4 bbu on the world market, thus making 7.5 bbu available on the world market. It doesnt matter that they used .5bbu in that time, because that 4bbu "world ending stocks" is the LEAST amount of beans available to the world market for the year. So maybe wasde needs to relabel "world ending stocks" with "least amount of beans available until sept 1 of next year" but its a technicality.
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