dry last year.. and now wet this year..  Which makes Sense.. La Nina shunting moisture SOUTH of Brazil, Paraguay.. INTO Argentina.. ???  ... or something like that...  ???

( http://soybeanandcorn.com/news/Jan30_19-Argetina-Crops-Complicated-by-Saturated-Conditions )

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Argentina Soybeans - More heavy rains fell over the weekend compounding an already serious situation in parts of Argentina. The provinces of most concern are Santiago del Estero, Chaco, Entre Rios, northern and central Santa Fe, and central Buenos Aires. In some of these areas in northern Argentina, it started raining in November and it basically never stopped with repeated heavy rains every few days. They have already received record amounts of rainfall and unfortunately, there is more rain in the forecast.

The situation in Argentina is hard to evaluate. In the saturated areas, they have a problem of course with some soybeans that were never planted and other fields destroyed by the flooding. The Rosario Exchange estimated that as much as 500,000 hectares of soybeans have either been lost or will need to be replanted and that 2.5-3,000,000 hectares have been impacted by the wet weather. In their next report, I suspect that the number of lost hectares will increase. The wettest areas of Argentina are not the most productive areas, so some of the lost soybeans were going to be lower yielding anyway.

In the higher areas or areas outside of the saturated zone, the soybeans are doing fine and they have a very high yield potential. When they start harvesting the crop, I think there will be reports of 75-80 bushel soybeans in Argentina. So, there will be some lost acreage due to the flooding, but there is going to be higher yields in the non-saturated areas.

In their weekly report, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated the soybeans as 11.4% poor to very poor and 41.3% as good to excellent. This is a lower rating than last week and it is due to the heavy rains. The soil moisture for the soybeans is rated 1.6% short to very short and 67.0% optimum to surplus. More than 14% of the soybeans are now rated as having surplus soil moisture. The soybeans are 49% blooming and 17% setting pods.