SE IL | Conan the Farmer - 1/19/2019 12:15
I think it's great! The uncertainty of what is occurring is great. This shutdown has made me a firm believer that all USDA reports should be done away with.
USDA reports largely result in suppressed prices. End of story. Private Data would be diverse and unreliable. USDA data is also unreliable, but gets to carry "authority". It's NOT fact or correct, just an opinion of what is out there or what is produced. Without that "authority", to which all the private estimators lend deference, the uncertainty would grow substantially. With constant uncertainty, our prices would rarely drop as low as we are today and would be more volatile. Volatility is opportunity.
Edit: They can keep the export numbers, customs is an actual function of the government
I would guess that the farther you get away from the last report the larger the uncertainty becomes. And I think uncertainty is not normally associated with higher prices. Although there would likely be wider price swings. The question needs to be asked, why did the government start issuing the reports in the first place? I'm going to guess that the market lacked an adequate signaling mechanism. With the information flow we have today compared to 100 years ago maybe the market can function efficiently without them but as a rule less information is not better. |
A question about private data.
