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| The difference is that last year China had already bought 27.6 MMT from the US before the problems in Argentina became apparent. Now Brazil is dry while Argentina is getting torrential rain. Torrential rain can be just as bad as too dry. There is no doubt that stocks in both Brazil and Argentina are low. We know that China had just enough stocks to get to March. That 900 million US carryout (I happen to think it's higher) is 24 MMT. That 24 MMT could be what China needs plus whatever Brazil can supply to get to the next US harvest. | |
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I may be eating crow
