Posted 1/8/2019 22:41 (#7231150 - in reply to #7231124) Subject: RE: I may be eating crow
The problem with trading South American weather is evidenced by last spring. We knew Argentina was in a massive drought and the crop was short. By the time actual harvest reports were released, around May for them and January for the U.S., the trade was trading the American crop. In other words, South American weather has little to do with anything when the world carryout is double what it was this time last year. Where were prices last year? That's your first hint as to why you likely want to have an itchy trigger finger in this volatility instead of waiting to actually trade a 900 million + carryout when 12 months ago, 500 million was considered burdensome. Just my current opinion. Give it a week and it may change, although I've had this train of thought since early December when I ignored the dead cat bounce.