Posted 1/9/2019 01:00 (#7231237 - in reply to #7231194) Subject: What the US has Gained in Carryout.. Brazil may (??) have already lost in Yield..
USDA is at 122.. most are under 120.. and right now the low is 96... hmmm
The ENSO pattern change is still intensifying.. Not stopping or reversing.. but intensifying.
And the US has the stocks.
Argentina 55.0 37.8 55..50 Brazil 114.6120.3 122.0 ??96 To 130 US116.92120.04 125.18
Argentina35.4634.5241.3 Note Brazil and Arg are Ending Stocks mid year Brazil26.8125.1521.35 Should look at them on Dec 31st.. for example. US 8.21 11.9226.0
So Brazil at 114.6.. 120.3 to forecast of 122 with as high as.. ?? 128'ish to 130.. NOW with Informa at like 117..?? and some at 112.. with Cordonier..
"It is always very difficult to estimate soybean yield losses before the combines enter the field. In Brazil, the most optimistic estimates have the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop down 5% from last year, which would be down about 6 million tons to approximately 114 million tons. The most pessimistic estimates have the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop down 20% from last year, which would be down about 24 million tons to approximately 96 million tons! At this point, it is impossible to say where the total soybean production will end up, but we can say that the estimates of the Brazilian crop are heading lower."