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I may be eating crow
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Posted 1/9/2019 01:00 (#7231237 - in reply to #7231194)
Subject: What the US has Gained in Carryout.. Brazil may (??) have already lost in Yield..

USDA is at 122.. most are under 120.. and right now the low is 96... hmmm

The ENSO pattern change is still intensifying.. Not stopping or reversing.. but intensifying.

Looks dry.

And the US has the stocks.

Production: 16/17 17/18 18/19 proj

Argentina    55.0   37.8   55..50
Brazil  114.6 120.3  122.0  ?? 96 To 130
US 116.92 120.04  125.18

Carry out

Argentina 35.46 34.52 41.3   Note Brazil and Arg are Ending Stocks mid year
Brazil 26.81 25.15 21.35   Should look at them on Dec 31st..  for example.
US  8.21  11.92 26.0

So Brazil at 114.6.. 120.3 to forecast of 122 with as high as.. ?? 128'ish to 130.. NOW with Informa at like 117..?? and some at 112.. with Cordonier.. 

"It is always very difficult to estimate soybean yield losses before the combines enter the field. In Brazil, the most optimistic estimates have the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop down 5% from last year, which would be down about 6 million tons to approximately 114 million tons. The most pessimistic estimates have the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop down 20% from last year, which would be down about 24 million tons to approximately 96 million tons! At this point, it is impossible to say where the total soybean production will end up, but we can say that the estimates of the Brazilian crop are heading lower." )

From that.. optimistic -6, pessimistic -24 = -30/2 = -15 or 105 mmt's.. Essentially Brazil has lost what the US has gained in Carryout stocks..

so back to square 1?

Edited by JonSCKs 1/9/2019 09:17
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