Posted 1/9/2019 07:12 (#7231452 - in reply to #7231150) Subject: RE: I may be eating crow
Wow where to begin. First off world carryout has far from doubled. I think the number you are referring to is US carryout which has gone from 438 to 955 estimated. However world carryout has gone from 101 to 115 so yes a descent increase but far from a double. A big portion of that change is who is holding the carryover which with the trade war the US has increased tremendously while it looks like brazil will be decreasing tremendously. Last year brazil had enough production and carryover to supply a big chunk of china's needs. Anything they are short of 120 will be ton for ton that china won't have excess to. Couple in the fact china's stocks are way down and the importance of a big brazil crop is amplified.