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| I think I have not articulated one thing I believe.
I believe if it's possible to know the fundamentals, then it's possible for fundamentals to be useful. The folly in fundamental analysis is thinking you can know the fundamentals.
In my example if you were the guy who discovered the new use for the worthless product you would buy as much of it as you could afford before your fundamental knowledge became well known.
All of the commodities we trade and produce are way past the point of being able to know.
Not only do you have to know how much demand there is at this price and how much supply there is at this price (which we don't know perfectly) but you have to know those two things for every price.
It is not possible to know when the cattle guys are going to throw in the towel and say, "that's it, I'm not buying another kernel at this price and realistically I should have said that $3 ago".
But price told us immediately when that happened. It is the leading indicator that something has changed. After that it's easy to see what fundamental thing happened but trying to use fundamentals to predict it gets you to the party long after the party is over. | |
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The whole Whale thing?
