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| Since this has nothing to do with whales, I'm going to keep posting.
So far in my limited experience:
1. The corn market started crashing in 2012 on the very early side of the extremely small harvest we had that year. Why is it that the market crashed when supply was tight and getting tighter if fundamentals rule?
2. The corn market bottomed at $3.17 or so and rallied to well over $4 at the time we had the most burdensome supply. If fundamentals rule then why did this happen?
I was originally a hard core fundamentalist but I have come to believe that price leads fundamentals. I'll go so far as to say price creates the fundamental situation we observe.
In corn the very high prices in 2012 CREATED the absolute GLUT of corn that we have seen ever since. After prices like what no one has ever seen before, the entire world thought we had hit a new plateau and here in the United States we grew corn for several years like it was going back there again and the rest of the world found places and ways to grow corn that we never would have thought would grow corn.
This fundamental phenomenon was a direct result of price, it is not what caused price. Not only did the PRICE increase worldwide supply dramatically but it simultaneously and nearly instantaneously cut demand dramatically. That is why the market dropped before the tightest crunch in corn supply. It was because price is the LEADING indicator, not the lagging indicator. It is because price became unbearable for end users and the first sign of that was a huge drop in price (if you don't believe in any technical indicators which I did not at the time).
Same with the low. Supply was burdensome but price was preparing to rally. Why? Because price was low enough to stimulate demand. And the FIRST indicator of that was price going back up. When price started rallying no fundamental person in their right mind was saying it was going to. jpartner said it was going to and even said how much but even he was skeptical because of how burdensome supply was at that time.
Maybe Andrews forks don't work. I believe they do for those who have dedicated the time to understanding the context of price enough to utilize them correctly but I have never found that much time and therefore have not had much personal success with them.
But I will say this. From my observing the market, starting out as a very bull headed fundamentalist, I am very convinced that price does not respond to fundamentals but rather it is the other way around.
If technicals cannot predict a market then the market cannot be predicted because I am very certain that fundamentals cannot provide the slightest bit of help.
By the way, a rain in the corn belt is such a tiny blip even in the fundamental picture it's just not worth even mentioning. 19 years out of 20 (or more) it rains in the corn belt. Rain in the corn belt is something that everyone expects.
Edited by dpilot83 6/24/2017 07:18
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The whole Whale thing?
