First, they revised Wheat feeding down to 250 myn bu for the ENTIRE YEAR.. and Q1 F&R on corn missed by MORE than THAT!!  At 308 myn above the mean!!  Mostly we come in "around" that 2,000 number.. but 2,426.. that number seems to be really out of line.  btw your link was a NEGATIVE wheat feed value of 163 myn bushels.. so pretty sure that THAT is not it..


Your link is pretty good..

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2013/12/why-anticipating-feed-residual-corn-use-difficult.html


I was struck by this statement..

A third factor that makes anticipating and projecting quarterly feed and residual use of corn difficult is the shift in the quarterly pattern of consumption in that category since the 2006-07 marketing year. With minimal variation, the quarterly distribution of marketing year feed and residual use was very consistent from 1990-91 through 2005-06.  Use was largest in the first quarter (as a percentage of the marketing year total) and smallest in the fourth quarter, but that distribution did not vary much from year to year. Since then, there has been substantially more variation in the quarterly distribution of use and a general shift to a larger percentage of consumption in the first quarter and a smaller percentage in the fourth quarter of the year.

In the data I posted above.. you could make a reasonable argument that increased feeding of DDG's is pushing corn out of the ration.. notice the 4 blue misses in 4 of the previous 16 quarters where quarterly Feed & Residual useage came in BELOW 1 Std Deviation Below the mean... "okay.. possible."

Our local feedlot that I keep referencing that probably took in 800 k to 1 myn bushels LESS High Moisture Corn than normal.. is INCREASING wet DDG.. so.. "okay makes sense.."

Which makes this Q1 switch THE OTHER way.. in the MAGNITUDE that it occurred.. so much more puzzling..  "Say WHAT?!?  I could buy a 1,950'ish number but 2,426?!?"

Maybe Tara has it all in his bins.. to his point.. "underestimate of Farmer Stored" see arguments above..   "could be..??  but...???  Really??  ???"  


Anywho.. the next stocks report in March is gonna be interesting.


Tara: