There's been a lot of Challenges and Changes in the past couple of years...  The Energy price spikes.. the Ethanol boom.. the growth in acres here in the US and abroad.. Bio-tech.. Droughts.. etc.. 

Golly what am I leaving out.. invasion by Martians?  Thankfully no.  but still that's enough.

We used to have a farm program that basically set the market price.. loan rates.. and the Yearly price was give or take a nickel.. USDA reports were not as scrutinized back then..

"We're gonna raise enough.. then use some.. to most of it."

Now.. we're operating mostly WITHOUT a Gov't program.. heck they haven't even got one written and they've been working on it for FIVE YEARS!!!  (that part of gov't might still be broken..???)

So now there's a lot more pressure on USDA's reports (uh-hum) and given the dynamic's it matters...!!

Personally I think they have over-estimated crop size in the years where we've had an expansion in planted acreage..

Specifically in 07/08's 13,035 myn bushel crop.. well from below we talk about Q1 Feed and Residual (error)

Q1 F&R historical..

2006: 2,159

2,387   (previous record in 07 also a big crop..13,035 WAS it Over counted..??  150.7 bu yield on 93.7 myn planted acres.. a 15.243 myn acre INCREASE vs 06.. Do the FRINGE acres.. COC etc.. yield as much as trend..?!?  no...)

1,978

2,015

2,069

1,826

2,082

2,426  similarly is it over estimated..??

However, as I mention above.. lots of changes in this time period.. specifically the growth of the ethanol market.. How much comes back as DDG's?  How much is fed?  Does that offset anything else?  Soybean meal?

So.. in USDA's defense.. "it's tricky."

and to be honest.. If I were in their shoes.. "I'd probably make the same errors."   (lol if I could even do THAT good..?!?)  

Although I still believe the TRADE is missing things that are reported as much or more than it being USDA's fault..

and that's how I view it.


edit add:  If I would look through MY posts from back then.. I was probably Cheerleading for higher production myself..!!  07/08..  SEE we CAN RAISE ENOUGH for Feed, Food, Exports AND Bio-Fuels..  Which I still believe today.. it's just that I want to make a living also... 

Yipper.. probably should have sold some more corn back at $6.00... golly I guess we ALL make mistakes...  Hope I don't decide to FIRE myself.. probably no bonus this year.. slacker!!