We're gonna see cancelations.. and USDA will up the crop size. So part of WHY we are doing this.. record shipments... is.. (and don't tell them..) but Sat and Tara are correct in that the US farmer pitched inventory in time that it could be shipped to ports and sold.. aka the farmer listened to the market and.. "moved beans.. moved beans.."
but... "shhh" don't tell them that I said that... ;-)
Holding bean inventory is playing chicken with the markets.. sooner or later S America is gonna own the export market.. I just think it's gonna be a little bit later than most.. but "I could be wrong."
by the end of December last year we are crying about how China can cancel contracts.. so in a few weeks here.. probably same thing.. Thing is S Am can raise a bookoo crop.. and no doubt 90 mmt's or whatever Brazil has penciled in now is big.. but can they ship it..?? We may be fighting their exports come next fall in our own harvest.. aka we may want to store a little more off the combine vs pitch it all like this year..
.. then again.. if the world economy gets ontrack.. demand may be higher again next year... ??? |