The highest absolute sales year in your chart, which I talk about above, was Crop year 2010/11 where we ended up at 39.93 mmt's.. or 1,467 myn bushels.


On 12/09/2010 We had Shipped 18 mmt's.. today we sit at 20.5 mmt's (as your chart shows..) 2.5 mmt's better this year.  On this date in 2010 we had 15.5 mmt's in sales.. Today we have 18.5 mmt's in sales or 3 mmt's better then that year's "best ever."


We sold and shipped another 6.43 mmt's that year.. World demand is larger this year.. but going with that figure we could end up at 45.47 mmt's or 1,670 myn bushels.  Or 195 myn bushels MORE than USDA has us at now.. Of course USDA would have to add 45+ myn bushels either to the crop size or imports as they show us at 150 myn carry out now.. and we did not go below 120 last year..  So yes.. we're gonna hit the brakes here soon.. or run out.  No doubt we will over ship.. and then re-import.. which will add competiton to the line up that must come back in from down south.


My data in the initial post above is different because I used 12/16/10 where we had 19.376 mmt's in shipments and 14.873 mmt's in sales = 34.25 mmt's but added 5.68 mmt's more to reach the 39.93 total. 

"my bad."   

Still added that puts us at 44.72 mmt's or 1,643 myn bushel..


Basically the Soybean S/D is NO DIFFERENT than this time last year..

When the average price was $14.40.  
  
So in that respect.. it's "not out of range."