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Trendline Exports.. the numbers.
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JonSCKs
Posted 12/19/2013 17:48 (#3531480)
Subject: Trendline Exports.. the numbers.


Here is the data since the start of the marketing year..

http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/wkHistData.htm

Soybeans:  Shipments  Total Shipments     Sales       Total Sales      New Crop Sales    Total N/C

09/05/201360,12660,1261,406,56021,896,31100
09/12/201374,206134,332923,31022,745,41500
09/19/2013442,501576,8332,816,83225,119,7469,5009,500
09/26/2013390,281967,114860,69225,590,15743,00052,500
10/03/2013851,7441,818,858929,75225,668,16518,00070,500
10/10/201301,818,858025,668,165070,500
10/17/201301,818,858025,668,165070,500
10/24/20135,123,2056,942,0634,742,01225,286,972070,500
10/31/20132,138,4999,080,562997,11424,145,58718,70089,200
11/07/20131,995,25711,075,819778,51622,928,84660,600149,800
11/14/20132,488,63513,564,4541,376,39621,816,6070149,800
11/21/20131,843,77315,408,2271,405,91121,378,745364,857514,657
11/28/20131,878,12617,286,353805,24120,305,860355,614870,271
12/05/20131,711,24918,997,6021,108,61119,703,222413,8501,284,121
12/12/20131,569,24120,492,050415,50818,549,48980,2101,364,331

Corn

09/05/2013171,159171,1591,208,64812,612,059022,000
09/12/2013518,809689,968437,38412,530,634022,000
09/19/2013479,1321,169,100640,13912,691,641022,000
09/26/2013546,2261,715,326775,18912,920,604022,000
10/03/2013618,0322,333,3581,341,44513,644,017022,000
10/10/201302,333,358013,644,017022,000
10/17/201302,333,358013,644,017022,000
10/24/20132,094,3864,427,7444,555,49716,105,128737,956759,956
10/31/2013710,2495,137,9931,718,63217,113,5110759,956
11/07/2013463,7895,601,7821,202,86217,852,5840759,956
11/14/2013756,3496,358,131945,13418,041,36937,592797,548
11/21/2013700,9707,059,1011,006,98018,347,3790797,548
11/28/20131,042,1108,101,211593,64217,898,9110797,548
12/05/2013977,4489,078,659695,42517,616,888109,400906,948
12/12/2013693,3689,772,027827,06717,750,58745,212952,160

Wheat

06/06/2013376,117376,1171,185,5087,030,63200
06/13/2013619,143995,260432,7366,844,2252,0002,000
06/20/2013478,9931,474,253731,8257,097,05702,000
06/27/2013688,4782,162,731593,0287,001,60702,000
07/04/2013714,6632,877,3941,473,3337,760,27702,000
07/11/2013726,0003,603,394996,6288,030,90502,000
07/18/2013567,8824,171,276661,3798,124,40202,000
07/25/2013627,4004,798,676596,9068,093,90802,000
08/01/2013773,4175,572,093726,1848,046,67502,000
08/08/2013709,9176,282,010490,1487,826,9065,5007,500
08/15/2013871,3337,153,343494,0287,449,60107,500
08/22/2013824,4517,977,794551,3067,176,45607,500
08/29/2013954,8188,932,612668,3886,890,02679,00086,500
09/05/2013911,9259,844,537543,8826,521,9838,00094,500
09/12/20131,204,37811,048,915704,4356,022,040(2,500)92,000
09/19/20131,028,50012,077,415620,2125,613,752092,000
09/26/2013836,80812,914,223837,8205,614,764092,000
10/03/2013835,35113,749,574653,6335,433,046092,000
10/10/2013013,749,57405,433,046092,000
10/17/2013013,749,57405,433,046092,000
10/24/20131,621,80715,371,3811,308,8375,120,076092,000
10/31/2013312,02715,683,408416,7965,224,84511,000103,000
11/07/2013382,76616,066,174287,8495,129,928900103,900
11/14/2013551,46716,617,641618,1135,196,5740103,900
11/21/2013331,05616,948,697562,2165,427,7340103,900
11/28/2013369,39017,318,087229,1765,287,5200103,900
12/05/2013563,23617,881,323372,1675,096,45110,727114,627
12/12/2013376,50118,257,824656,0925,376,0423,000117,627

 

Now from that I update this.. weekly.. going back the previous 4 years for the Same week's Sales and Shipments and compare that to that YEAR's SHIPMENTS.. (which takes out the carry over sales) so that gives us the ADDED Sales that are SHIPPED for that year.. average those.. and add that to this weeks numbers.. which gives us.. this:

              
  Soybeans  Corn       
  Total Shipments  Total Shipments      
              
1990 16.8   58.7       
1991 15.2   42.9       
1992 18.9   39       
1993 21.5   40.3       
1994 16.4   32.2       
1995 23.4   54.7   All Wheat  
1996 23.5   55.7   Total Shipments  
1997 24.5   44.4       
1998 22.9   37.2       
1999 26.9   49.5   25.5   
2000 27.5   48.7   25.8   
2001 29.9   47.7   24.1   
2002 29.1   48   20.8   
2003 24.112-Dec  39.912-Dec  29.612-Dec  
2004 29.97  Booked 48.2  Booked  26.6  Booked  
2005 25.5   45.4   25.3   
2006 30.3   54.3   22.9   
2007 30.4 Add Ship54 Add Ship32.6 Add Ship
2008 33.8   59.97   26.0   
2009 39.630.698.91 45.222.6422.56 21.715.46.3 
2010 39.934.255.65 48.324.423.9 33.425.08.4 
2011 36.723.1813.52 45.22421.2 26.619.07.6 
2012 36.230.335.87 37.912.625.3 26.317.78.6 
2013 20.539.04  9.827.5  18.323.6  
    8.4875   23.2   7.7 
   47.5275   50.8   31.36  
              
 projected1745.84 projected1997.77 projected1151.77  
 pace  pace   pace    
              
 USDA40.151475 USDA36.841450 USDA29.951100  
              
 Difference271 myn bu  548 myn bu  52 myn bu 
              
12/5/2013  297   545   53  
11/28/2013  273   525   47  

So we have Soybean Shipments of 20.5 mmt's or 753.03 myn bushels combined with sales brings the total to 39.04 mmt's or 1,434.07 myn bushels..  ON AVERAGE from the past 4 years we will SHIP all the sales plus another 8.5 mmt's bringing total expected or "Trendline" exports to 1,746 myn bushels.. This year of course we do not have that many beans to ship.. so.. we will not hit trendline.

We do have the corn and could hit 1,998 myn bushels or 548 myn bushels more than the USDA has currently forecast as well as the 1,152 of wheat.

"fwiw."



Edited by JonSCKs 12/19/2013 17:54
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