Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | You are probably correct about export demand when you say "thristy countries". Just like domestic endusers they allowed their stockpiles and pipelines to empty rather than purchase $7-8 corn last summer and are taking the opportunity to refill them at $3-4. But the wonderful thing about corn (& soybeans) is that it gets consumed.
My question for you is: "How elastic is demand?" What happens to corn consumption at $4 as opposed to $7?
And we always need to put stocks into perspective. For instance, Sat below under "Crop Report" mentioned that world corn stock increase from 121? mMT last year to 164 mMT this year but total world corn production runs just under 1000 mMT. So a 40 mMT increase amounts to a 4% increase.
I'm not sure your analogy about a bunch of drunk college student applies to world supply & demand. But if you can offer some data to support it I'm sure we would interested.
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